Identifying endogenous fiscal policy rules for macroeconomic models

In this paper, we present a model-based method for identifying fiscal closure rules in stochastic macroeconomic models. The methodology is based on the stability analysis of the model at hand, with an endogenous derivation of a reaction on the part of the fiscal authority to state variables in the model. The rule achieves the dual aim of imposing solvency on the fiscal sector and generating a state-contingent dynamic adjustment in a framework consistent with the properties of the model. Up to now, fiscal rules in leading large-scale macroeconomic forecasting models have been imposed exogenously, and in this sense are not necessarily compatible with the formulation of other sectors of these models. An example of the derivation procedure, including some illustrative results, is provided using a small calibrated macro model.Macroeconomic models; Closure rules; Fiscal policy; Stability analysis

Identifying endogenous fiscal policy rules for macroeconomic models

In this paper, we present a model-based method for identifying fiscal closure rules in stochastic macroeconomic models. The methodology is based on the stability analysis of the model at hand, with an endogenous derivation of a reaction on the part of the fiscal authority to state variables in the model. The rule achieves the dual aim of imposing solvency on the fiscal sector and generating a state-contingent dynamic adjustment in a framework consistent with the properties of the model. Up to now, fiscal rules in leading large-scale macroeconomic forecasting models have been imposed exogenously, and in this sense are not necessarily compatible with the formulation of other sectors of these models. An example of the derivation procedure, including some illustrative results, is provided using a small calibrated macro model. JEL Classification: C5, E6, C62C62, Closure rules, E6, Fiscal Policy, JEL classification C5, macroeconomic models, Stability analysis

Estimation of Sounding Uncertainty from Measurements of Water Mass Variability

Analysis techniques are introduced that allow for estimation of potential sounding uncertainty due to water mass variability from reconnaissance campaigns in which oceanographic parameters are measured at a high temporal and spatial resolution. The analysis techniques do not require sounding data, thus analyses can be tailored to match any survey system; this allows for pre-analysis campaigns to optimize survey instrumentation and sound speed profiling rates such that a desired survey specification can be maintained. Additionally, the output of the analysis methods can potentially provide a higher fidelity estimation of sounding uncertainty due to water mass variability than uncertainty models in common use

Uncertainty Wedge Analysis: Quantifying the Impact of Sparse Sound Speed Profiling Regimes on Sounding Uncertainty

Recent advances in real-time monitoring of uncertainty due to refraction have demonstrated the power of estimating and visualizing uncertainty over the entire potential sounding space. This representation format, referred to as an uncertainty wedge, can be used to help solve difficult survey planning problems regarding the spatio-temporal variability of the watercolumn. Though initially developed to work in-line with underway watercolumn sampling hardware (e.g. moving vessel profilers), uncertainty wedge analysis techniques are extensible to investigate problems associated with low-density watercolumn sampling in which only a few sound speed casts are gathered per day. As uncertainty wedge analysis techniques require no sounding data, the overhead of post-processing soundings is circumvented in the situation when one needs to quickly ascertain the impact of a particular sampling regime. In keeping with the spirit of the underlying real-time monitoring tools, a just in time analysis of sound speed casts can help the field operator assess the effects of watercolumn variability during acquisition and objectively seek a watercolumn sampling regime which would balance the opposing goals of maximizing survey efficiency and maintaining reasonable sounding accuracy. In this work, we investigate the particular problem of estimating the uncertainty that would be associated with a particular low-density sound speed sampling regime. A pre-analysis technique is proposed in which a high-density set of sound speed profiles provides a baseline against which various low-density sampling regimes can be tested, the end goal being to ascertain the penalty in sounding confidence that would be associated with a particular low-density sampling regime. In other words, by knowing too much about the watercolumn, one can objectively quantify the impact of not knowing enough. In addition to the goal-seeking field application outlined earlier, this allows for more confi- dent attribution of uncertainty to soundings, a marked improvement over current approaches to refraction uncertainty estimation

Debt reduction and automatic stabilisation

This paper presents an optimal fiscal policy response to address the basic trade-off between the automatic stabilisation properties of budgets and the long run fiscal positions. The framework is an overlapping generations model la Weil (1989), extended to account for stochastic endowments and borrowing constrained households. A benign government chooses over the optimal degree of responsiveness of net taxes to individual incomes, an optimal measure of long-run public debt, or both, in order to smooth households' consumption across states of nature. In the presence of a deficit constraint for the government, the results unambiguously point to the desire for lower debt levels than those currently prevailing in order to enable a more effective hedging of personal income uncertainty by means of more active fiscal stabilisers. Citizens in economies exhibiting more pronounced cycles will favour less automatic stabilisation combined with a more aggressive policy of debt reduction. JEL Classification: H31, H63, E63Automatic stabilisation, Borrowing constraints, Consumption, public debt

Governmental Regulation of the Drug Industry

In today\u27s world of increased government participation in business, certain industries are frequently spotlighted for particular attention. The communications industry is one, the drug industry is another. In both cases the special attention is fitting, for the communications industry, like the drug industry, each in its own way, reaches the very fiber of American life. Each has the inherent capability of changing our political and social order. At any rate two points are basic: first, the drug industry directly affects the foundations of our society and therefore is a reasonable concern of government. Secondly, the drug industry has a legitimate and productive function and those who administer it should not abdicate their responsibility to regulatory agencies

Spatially resolved ultrafast precessional magnetization reversal

Spatially resolved measurements of quasi-ballistic precessional magnetic switching in a microstructure are presented. Crossing current wires allow detailed study of the precessional switching induced by coincident longitudinal and transverse magnetic field pulses. Though the response is initially spatially uniform, dephasing occurs leading to nonuniformity and transient demagnetization. This nonuniformity comes in spite of a novel method for suppression of end domains in remanence. The results have implications for the reliability of ballistic precessional switching in magnetic devices.Comment: 17 pages (including 4 figures), submitted to Phys. Rev. Let